By Faraz Khan, CEO & Partner, Spectreco

With COP29 slated for Baku, Azerbaijan in November 2024, the urgency of global climate action takes center stage amidst mounting crises. 

However, the sobering reality revealed at COP28 in Dubai remains unchanged. 

Despite the imminent threat, the establishment of a loss and damage fund was marred by a woefully inadequate initial funding of $429 million, a mere drop in the bucket compared to the staggering $400 billion annual requirement for developing nations ravaged by climate disasters. 

Moreover, the agreement’s tepid language on transitioning away from fossil fuels casts a foreboding shadow, suggesting a lack of earnest commitment to averting climate catastrophe. 

Meanwhile, Africa, a region disproportionately impacted by climate change, continues to receive meager climate adaptation financing, further exacerbating its vulnerability. 

As COP29 approaches, the pressing need for decisive measures to confront the existential threat posed by climate change becomes increasingly urgent, underscoring the glaring gap between rhetoric and action on the global stage.

Azerbaijan’s significance is growing

Azerbaijan’s selection as the host for COP29 in November 2024 reflects a nuanced recognition of its evolving geopolitical significance and the complexities inherent in addressing climate change within the context of fossil fuel dependency. 

Despite being a major exporter of oil and gas, Azerbaijan’s strategic importance in Eastern Europe and its contributions to regional energy security, highlighted by projects such as the Black Sea Energy Submarine Cable, have positioned it as a notable player in global energy dynamics. 

However, this decision also underscores the tensions between acknowledging Azerbaijan’s economic reliance on fossil fuels and the imperative to transition towards renewable energy sources to mitigate climate change effectively. 

The gap between Azerbaijan’s current climate targets, aiming for a 35% reduction in emissions by 2030 and 40% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels, and the more ambitious global benchmarks for achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 highlights the challenges facing the nation in aligning its environmental commitments with international expectations.

Moreover, Azerbaijan’s nascent efforts in renewable energy, such as recent investments in solar parks and partnerships with international stakeholders, reflect a growing recognition of the need to diversify its energy portfolio. 

However, criticisms regarding the absence of a comprehensive long-term strategy for renewable energy expansion raise questions about the sincerity of these initiatives and their potential impact on reducing fossil fuel dependency. 

The tension between utilizing renewables to complement existing energy exports versus genuinely transitioning towards a greener economy underscores the complexities Azerbaijan faces in balancing economic interests with environmental imperatives. 

By assuming the presidency of COP29 and actively engaging in climate negotiations, Azerbaijan must navigate these challenges while solidifying its diplomatic standing and shaping the discourse on climate action and sustainable development. 

Concentrate on a three-pronged agenda

Cop 29 should adopt a pragmatic stance, eschewing overly ambitious targets that may prove unattainable. Instead, it should prioritize an incremental approach to addressing the climate crisis. By doing so, Cop 29 can serve as a pivotal and transitional moment for global climate action. To achieve this, it must concentrate on a three-pronged agenda aimed at meaningful progress.

First, an urgent attention needs to be drawn to the unprecedented surge in global fossil fuel subsidies, now towering at an alarming $7 trillion, equivalent to 7.1 percent of the world’s GDP. This surge, spurred by crises such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and post-pandemic economic recovery efforts, poses a dire threat to climate goals. Despite initiatives to curb emissions, Europe’s subsidies surged to EUR 123 billion in 2022, while major economies like China ($2.2tn), the US ($757bn), and Russia ($421bn) continue to heavily subsidize fossil fuels. 

This substantial financial backing not only obstructs progress towards cleaner energy but also perpetuates carbon-intensive practices. South Africa’s fossil fuels subsidy tripling since 2017, detailed in the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) report, serves as a poignant reminder of the urgency for transformative action. COP29 must confront this stark reality head-on, redirecting investments toward sustainable energy sources to mitigate the looming climate catastrophe.

Secondly, it’s crucial for governments to recognize the pressing need for climate justice in their contributions to the loss and damage fund. However, the commitments made at COP28, totaling just over $700 million, are cause for concern. This amount falls far short of the staggering economic toll projected for climate-related loss and damage, estimated at up to USD 400 billion annually by 2030 in developing nations alone, with some studies suggesting an even wider range. Looking ahead to 2050, this figure could reach USD 1 to 1.8 trillion. 

These relatively modest pledges highlight the challenges in adequately addressing the impacts of climate change. It’s evident that more substantial and timely contributions are needed to support vulnerable nations and mitigate the long-term consequences of climate-related disasters, especially under Azerbaijan’s leadership, which provides a crucial platform to mobilize collective action and accelerate progress toward addressing these critical issues.

Thirdly, CoP 29 must prioritize a ‘Just transition away from fossil fuels,’ contrasting with COP 28’s general ‘transition away’ approach. While COP 28’s agreement is a milestone, critics deem its language weak. The focus on ‘just transition’ acknowledges varying national circumstances, with some nations ready for rapid change, like the UK and EU, while others, like China and India, face challenges. The agreement avoids immediate cessation of fossil fuel use, stressing gradual reduction and exploration of alternative low-emission sources such as natural gas and green hydrogen. CoP 29 should thus emphasize fair and equitable transition strategies tailored to individual nations, while aiming for the overarching goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050.

The need for urgent action cannot be overstated

The incremental increases in global temperature, whether reaching 1.5 degrees or 2 degrees Celsius, should not be perceived as clear-cut thresholds. Rather, each degree of warming intensifies the already dire challenges faced by our planet compared to preceding levels.

Nonetheless, it is crucial to recognize that the trajectory of climate change is not set in stone. The need for urgent action cannot be overstated, particularly as we approach the critical juncture of COP29 in Baku. This upcoming conference holds significant weight in establishing pragmatic targets to combat climate change effectively. 

Despite the gravity of the situation, there exists a window of opportunity to temper the acceleration of climate change and mitigate its most devastating consequences. However, seizing this opportunity is contingent upon immediate and concerted efforts from global stakeholders. Failure to act decisively risks catastrophic repercussions for our planet and future generations.

Read the full article here: https://impactinsider.dk/opinion-cop-29-in-baku-is-a-transitional-and-decisive-opportunity-for-the-world/